Integrated Growth Forecast

The Forecasting Section, under the Community Development Division, Planning and Policy Department, is responsible for producing socioeconomic projections and developing, refining and maintaining SCAG's regional and small area forecasting models. The Forecasting Section works closely with the Plans and Programs Technical Advisory Committee, the California Department of Finance ( DOF ), subregions, local jurisdictions, CTCs, the public and other major stakeholders.

Using the base year socioeconomic forecasts, the Forecasting Section develops future forecasts in 5-year intervals. These forecasts and projections are made available at multiple geographic levels, including regional, county, city, unincorporated areas, census tract, and Transportation Analysis Zones ( TAZ ) levels.

These forecast numbers are used by SCAG's Modeling section to forecast travel demand and air quality for planning activities such as the Regional Transportation Plan ( RTP ), the Air Quality Management Plan ( AQMP ), Regional Transportation Improvement Program ( RTIP ), and the Regional Housing Plan.

2008 RTP Draft Baseline and Policy Growth Forecast Land Use Maps

The following maps are in JPEG format.

Draft Baseline Growth Forecast by Subregion

Draft Policy Growth Forecast by Subregion

Maps Comparing Draft Policy Growth Forecast with Draft Baseline Forecast

The following maps are in JPEG format.

Employment

TAZ Growth Forecast Employment by Subregion

Household

TAZ Growth Forecast Household by Subregion

Draft 2008 RTP Baseline Growth Forecast (built upon subregion/local jurisdiction input as is.)

Released on November 1, 2007 by SCAG CEHD Committee along with the Draft 2008 RTP for public review and comment.

2008 RTP Growth Forecasts – Interim Analysis and Products

The P&P TAC in its meeting on August 27, 2007 requested SCAG staff make available the workshop test scenario data sets and modeling results. The data sets and modeling results were interim analysis and products produced in May/June 2007. Since only 2030 network was available at that time, the data sets and modeling runs were for year 2030.

As shown by the modeling results: the mobility performances for the two workshop test scenarios (with and without county controls) were not as good as either 2004 RTP update, or the baseline case. As results of these analyses, staff has decided not to further pursue the development of these two data sets.

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