Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) Paratransit Demand Forecast Tool


As part of its monitoring of transit system performance over the past decade, SCAG identified a steady and significant increase in demand response trips in the region. SCAG’s analysis of historical data from the National Transit Database shows that between 1991 and 2016, demand response trips grew by 71 percent. During the same period, demand response service provided in the SCAG region increased four-fold, representing 20 percent of all transit service hours in 2016. As part of Connect SoCal, SCAG’s 2040 Regional Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS), SCAG forecasts 4.6 million persons aged 65 years or older by 2045, which constitutes about 21 percent of the total population.

SCAG initiated a study in 2019 to develop a tool to assist SCAG and transit providers with developing long term forecasts of demand for ADA paratransit services.

Federal statute establishes ADA complementary paratransit as a civil right, intended to serve as a “safety net” for persons with disabilities who cannot use fixed-route bus or rail service because of a disability. The ADA Paratransit Demand Forecast Tool, the first of its kind in the region, will help to inform SCAG’s long-range planning for ADA Paratransit needs in the region. It is intended to help measure the performance of plans in meeting the mobility needs of elderly and disabled residents, and to estimate the resources necessary to meet future needs. The tool can also be used to support the region’s ADA paratransit providers in their planning and budgeting activities.


ADA Paratransit Demand Forecast Tool
ADA Paratransit Demand Forecast Tool – User Guide


The following video features a workshop on ADA Paratransit Demand Forecast Tool.

The ADA Paratransit Demand Forecast Tool, outputs and associated data are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, whether expressed, implied, statutory, or otherwise including but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.