33rd Annual Demographic Workshop

Forecasting the New Normal

Post July 26, 2022

Sept. 14 & sept. 21
1:30 P.M. – 4:45 P.M.

Presented by the Southern California Association of Governments and the University of Southern California Sol Price School of Public Policy.

In the post-pandemic era, our region faces uncertainty around the future of housing, mobility, and employment. What is the new normal, who will benefit, and who will struggle to adapt? How can we plan for a different future when the present is still heavily in flux?

The 33rd annual Demographic Workshop, “Forecasting the New Normal,” where a lineup of leading experts weighed in on what’s in store for post-COVID Southern California. The workshop, in partnership with the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, was held virtually on the afternoons of Wednesday, Sept. 14, and Wednesday, Sept. 21.

Day 1 kicked off the event with a demographic “check-up” panel covering the latest trends in population with an eye toward their policy implications. A second panel discussed the latest research in housing and migration.

Day 2 began with Dr. Kahn’s keynote address which then be followed by a panel titled “Back to whose normal?” investigating transportation, environmental, and equity implications of the new normal.

Highlights

Part 1

Navigating data.census.gov

HCD Annual Progress Report Dashboard

Census 2020 and Differential Privacy

Part 2

Economic Census

Working with Race and Ethnicity Data from the ACS and 2020 Census

SCAG’s Regional Data Platform and Local Data Exchange

Agenda

Part 1: Wednesday, September 14

TIME	AGENDA
1:30 p.m.	INTRODUCTIONS Dowell Myers, Professor and Director, Population Dynamics Research Group, University of Southern California Alice Chen, Vice Dean for Research, Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California Kome Ajise, Executive Director, SCAG Hon. Jan C. Harnik, President, SCAG
1:45 p.m.	DEMOGRAPHIC CHECK-UP MODERATOR: Janna Goldberg, Head of Customer Research, Wayfair Beth Jarosz, Program Director, Population Reference Bureau VIEW PRESENTATION Walter Schwarm, Chief, Demographic Research Unit, California Department of Finance VIEW PRESENTATION
2:30 p.m.	HOUSING AND GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY MODERATOR: Megan Kirkeby, Deputy Director, Housing Policy Development, California Department of Housing & Community Development Kevin Kane, Demographics Program Manager, SCAG VIEW PRESENTATION Dowell Myers, Professor and Director, Population Dynamics Research Group, University of Southern California VIEW PRESENTATION Elora Raymond, Assistant Professor of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Tech VIEW PRESENTATION
3:15 p.m.	BREAK
3:45 p.m.	ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS “Navigating data.census.gov” Armando Mendoza, Data Dissemination Specialist, U.S. Census Bureau “HCD Annual Progress Report Dashboard” Tom Brinkhuis, California Department of Housing and Community Development VIEW PRESENTATION “Census 2020 and Differential Privacy” Jonathan Buttle, Demographic Research Unit, California Department of Finance VIEW PRESENTATION

Part 2: Wednesday, September 21

TIME	AGENDA
1:30 p.m.	DAY 1 RECAP
1:38 p.m.	ACS DATA ANALYSIS Download the American Community Survey 2021 1-Year Estimates: A First Look at Post-COVID Southern California report.
1:45 p.m.	KEYNOTE Matthew Kahn, Provost Professor of Economics and Spatial Sciences, USC VIEW PRESENTATION
2:25 p.m.	*BACK TO WHOSE* NORMAL? MODERATOR: Gigi Moreno, Senior Economist, Sustainable and Resilient Development, SCAG Giovanni Circella, Director, 3 Revolutions Future Mobility Program, UC-Davis VIEW PRESENTATION Ganga Shreedhar, Assistant Professor of Behavioural Science, London School of Economics Shaun Harper**, Provost Professor and Director, Race and Equity Center, USC
3:15 p.m.	BREAK
3:45 p.m.	ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS “Economic Census” Omari Wooden, Assistant Division Chief, Data User and Respondent Outreach, Economic Management Division, U.S. Census Bureau “Working with Race and Ethnicity Data from the ACS and 2020 Census” Alicia Van Orman, Senior Research Associate, Population Reference Bureau “SCAG’s Regional Data Platform and Local Data Exchange” Jonah Pellecchia, Regional Planner, SCAG Tom Vo, Program Manager I, SCAG VIEW PRESENTATION

Keynote Speaker

Matthew Kahn
USC Provost Professor of Economics and Spatial Sciences

Dr. Kahn’s research focuses on urban and environmental economics. In April 2022 the University of California Press published his book Going Remote: How the Flexible Work Economy Can Improve our Lives and Our Cities.

Following the panels, each day featured a one-hour roundtable led by experts in demographics and related areas covering the latest data, tools, and best practices.

For additional details about the event, please contact Kevin Kane at kane@scag.ca.gov.

American Community Survey 2021 1-Year Estimates

A First Look at Post-COVID Southern California

The COVID-19 pandemic not only impacted trends, it impacted the ability to generate data. The venerable American Community Survey’s 2020 1-year estimates were severely pared down due to sampling challenges, meaning that it was only possible to get state-level data on a limited set of topics. Until release American Community Survey’s 2020 1-year estimates, the only available Census 2020 data product is the so-called PL-94 file used for congressional redistricting, which lacks core details such as age.

This report takes a look at this newly released 2021 ACS 1-year data with an eye on economic and demographic changes observed in the SCAG region. It highlights the differences between 2019 and 2021 in order to compare pre- and post-pandemic.

Download the American Community Survey 2021 1-Year Estimates: A First Look at Post-COVID Southern California report.

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Sept. 14 & sept. 21 1:30 P.M. – 4:45 P.M.