Subarea Forecasting


SCAG develops socioeconomic estimates and growth projections including population, households, and employment for cities and transportation analysis zones in the SCAG region through enhanced forecasting methods and interactive public outreach. These estimates and projections provide the analytical foundations for SCAG’s transportation planning and other programs.

The transportation planning area covers 191 jurisdictions and six unincorporated communities in Southern California. This region is divided into over 11,000 small areas. These small areas are known as the Tier 2 Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) system. This zone system is uniquely designed to allow highly detailed traffic analysis and predictions through the use of SCAG’s sophisticated transportation model.

Population, household and employment estimates, and forecasts are maintained at the jurisdictional and county unincorporated level. Secondary variables including population, household and employment characteristics, single and multiple households, or employment by sectors, are further estimated and projected at the Tier 2 level.

This provides SCAG, in great geographical detail, current and future demographic profiles of the region. These profiles are key inputs to SCAG’s transportation model, which uses them to help estimate current and future transportation conditions.

Click here for the 2016-2040 RTP/SCS Final Growth Forecast by Jurisdiction and Total Population (2000 and 2010).