Forecasting

Overview
Overview

Growth Forecasting

With policy direction from the SCAG Community, Economic and Human Development (CEHD) Policy Committee and working closely with the Technical Working Group (TWG), the California Department of Finance (DOF), subregions, local jurisdictions, CTCs, the public and other major stakeholders, SCAG is responsible for producing socio-economic estimates and projections at multiple geographic levels and in multiple years.

Overview

Regional Forecasting

The regional growth forecast represents the most likely growth scenario for the Southern California region in the future, taking into account a combination of recent and past trends, reasonable key technical assumptions, and regional growth policies. The regional growth forecast is the basis for developing the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS), Program Environmental Impact Report (PEIR), and the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA). The regional growth forecast is completed through the collaboration among the various stakeholders.

Overview

Subarea Forecasting

SCAG develops socioeconomic estimates and growth projections including population, households, and employment for cities and transportation analysis zones in the SCAG region through enhanced forecasting methods and interactive public outreach. These estimates and projections provide the analytical foundations for SCAG’s transportation planning and other programs.

Overview

Local Input

SCAG''s DRAFT Preliminary Schedule for Development infographic

Local input will play an important role in developing an accurate growth forecast for SCAG’s 2016 RTP/SCS. Local input is an on-going process, SCAG seeks input from local jurisdictions throughout the development of the growth forecast. For the 2016 RTP/SCS, SCAG’s new Scenario Planning Model (SPM) will be used as the primary conduit for gathering and analyzing local input feeding into SCAG small area growth forecasting process.