Potential Economic Impacts of COVID-19 in the SCAG Region
This white paper provides an initial assessment of potential employment and taxable sales implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region as of the end of April, 2020. A discussion of data and information used in their development is also provided. The analysis assumes a low-point occurring around June 1, 2020 with a resumption of some economic activity thereafter, but a long, slow recovery extending through the end of 2021. Additionally, numerous assumptions are made about the decline and potential recovery trajectory in individual industry sectors. Future taxable sales in the SCAG region are compared to a baseline and assume a linear growth trajectory between June 2020 and December 2021. Employment and economic output are modeled separately using a structural economic forecasting model (REMI). Analyses of the pandemic’s impact at this stage are subject to an extremely high level of uncertainty; importantly this analysis does not assume a second wave of the pandemic or specifically model the impact of additional federal action. As the pandemic unfolds and additional data become available, these assumptions, modeling strategies, and outputs can be revised.